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SIP VoIP devices already account for as much as 20 percent
of landline phone traffic, with mobile networks soon to embrace VoIP as
Fring and Truphone offer options to traditional voice plans, says Daniel
Beringer over at GigaOm. It’s only a matter of time before SIP makes the analog
network  go away.

Pile on SIP clients for consumer handheld devices (Games
like the Nintendo DS or players like the iPod Touch), gizmos like magicJack, and
free calls for subscribers on services like Skype, Vonage, Jajah or Jaxtr and
it’s only a matter of time before a majority of callers stay “on net” rather than
gatewaying out to the PSTN. 

Of course, there’s the not-so-minor matter of how all the “free”
services pick up extra revenue by connecting calls from the PSTN to their clients.
A 20 percent VoIP penetration implies that called and calling parties have VoIP
devices about 4 percent of the time, leaving plenty of work (right now) for the
legacy phone network. Down the road, the
penetration of VoIP devices will cross a line where the traditional minutes-based
business model of telco and VoIP players alike just doesn’t work.

The legacy network has its uses, with reliability giving the
POTS an edge over the Internet for sales calls and other “high-value”
communications. (This reporter wonders if Berenger thinks telemarketers calling
during dinner represents high value). Beyond that, there’s a dive into the
Brave New World of better devices, cheaper rates, and a train-wreck at some
point when the by-the-minute model declines and revenues from arbitrage goes
away.

For more
- GigaOm Sees The
End of Telephony

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